I was curious at QB successes and failures in top 20 picks of the NFL Draft. In the 10 year period, ten quarterbacks became solid starters for their respective teams while 12 did not work out.
2008: Hits: 2 (Matt Ryan, Joe Flacco); Misses: 0
2007: Hits: 0; Misses: 1 (JaMarcus Russell)
Note: Brady Quinn drafted 22
2006: Hits: 1 (Jay Cutler); Misses: 2 (Vince Young, Matt Leinart)
2005: Hits: 0; Misses: 1 (Alex Smith)
Note: Aaron Rodgers drafted 24, Jason Campbell at 25
2004: Hits: 3 (Eli Manning, Phillip Rivers, Ben Roethlisberger); Misses: 0
2003: Hits: 1 (Carson Palmer); Misses: 2 (Byron Leftwich, Kyle Boller)
2002: Hits: 0; Misses: 2 (David Carr, Joey Harrington)
2001: Hits: 1 (Michael Vick); Misses: 0
2000: Hits: 0; Misses: 1 (Chad Pennington)
1999: Hits: 2 (Donovan McNabb, Daunte Culpepper); Misses: 3 (Tim Couch, Akili Smith, Cade McNown)
Every QB on the list had at least four years in the league to be evaluated. Therefore, I stopped at the 2008 draft year. I started the list with the 1999 draft because it was the first of the Cleveland Browns expansion era and it includes some of the biggest QB busts in NFL history.
Since 1999, 45% (10 of 22) of QB drafted high turned into solid starting quarterbacks. Since 2004, the number jumps to 60% (6 of 10). Bottom line, if a team is drafting high in the first round and needs a quarterback. The gamble of selecting a QB is worth it.
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